Thursday, October 09, 2008

Fun with Charts: Stock Market 1929 - 1942 vs. 2000 - 2013

Not the first, Im sure, to compare the two, but interesting parallels.


Initial fall from the peak.
  • The S&P, or whatever Bloomberg includes in the S&P from 1929 (possibly the entire market back then) peaked at close to $32 on September 16 1929. The market then fell for 33 months to $4.40, a drop of ~86%.


  • QQQQ, the largest 100 companies on the NASDAQ, peaked at about 117 on March 27 2000. The market then fell for 31 months to $20.06, a drop of ~83%.


2. Long Recovery to next peak
  • It took 57 months for the S&P to reach its next peak, in March 1937, for a gain of 324%
  • It took 60 months for the QQQQ to reach its next peak, in October 2007, for a gain of 173%


3. Fall
  • From the next peak of 18.67 in March of 1937, the market fell 54% in 12 months and bottomed on March 31 1938 at 8.5


  • From our peak (QQQQ) in October 2007, we have fallen 41% in 12 months











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